hurricanes
cmooney | September 7, 2006
Don't look now...but the latest forecast has Florence as a strong Category 2 storm hitting Bermuda in 96 hours. Of course, that's still a long range outlook subject to the usual caveats and uncertainties. I don't know how vulnerable Bermuda is to hurricanes due to geography and such. But you know they've got to be watching this one closely.....
cmooney | September 5, 2006The other day I showed you a pretty impressive image, from Remote Sensing Systems, of the cold wake left behind after Hurricane/Supertyphoon Ioke passed. The original image, dated Sept 1, is posted below:
Pretty cool, no? But now look at this image, dated Sept 4:
Note how the cold wake has expanded dramatically--and how this has happened long after the storm has passed. Amazing, no?
I spoke with a scientist today who cited this phenomenon as proof that the cold wake left behind by a hurricane is caused by turbulent ocean mixing--drawing cooler water up from the depths--and not simply…
cmooney | September 5, 2006Apparently this tiny little atoll stood up pretty well, at least according to this story:
When the crew approached the Island they weren't sure what they were going to find. "Our first assessment that we heard of the island could be pretty massive devastation. When we came to the island we flew over it at a thousand feet and we were pleasantly surprised that any significant hazards, fuel tanks, runway, general building conditions were in pretty good repair," said Lieutenant Adam Bentley of the U.S. Coast Guard.
Most of the island appears to be in good shape, but not everything was spared. "…
cmooney | September 5, 2006
The NHC has now upgraded the latest thick cloud blob to a tropical storm, making it Florence. You can see the five day cone above. Note: the forecasters describe the latest disturbance as "VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE." Indeed, they've had a fair spot of trouble even pinpointing the center of this storm, so all bets are off right now as to its ultimate destination.
Forecasting intensity is also tricky, as usual. The hurricane specialists bring Flo up to 85 knots within 120 hours but fully admit it could be stronger:
THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR…
cmooney | September 4, 2006
There's still not much news yet out of Wake Island, other than that there aren't any oil spills (um, why would there be?) But Hurricane/Supertyphoon Ioke left a different kind of, er, wake than its destruction of Wake. This incredible storm churned lots of cooler water up from below the ocean surface, as you can see in the sea surface temperature anomaly picture above from Remote Sensing Systems.
A storm's capacity to mix up the oceans is, of course, proportional to its power. And Ioke had a hell of a lot of power at its height. Some scientists have even speculated that this type of cyclone…
cmooney | September 3, 2006
As you can see in the once and future path of Ioke provided by Tropical Storm Risk, this storm has now weakened dramatically as it has tracked further and further north. It's now a Category 2 storm, and no longer an apparent risk to Japan. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Ioke will swerve sharply to the northeast and undergo transition into an extratropical cyclone. Says JTWC: "THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS...ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS RECURVATURE SCENARIO."
So the drama appears to be over now. Nonetheless, Ioke was an amazing, amazing storm. I still don't understand why…
cmooney | September 3, 2006
The National Hurricane Center has just officially classified the sucker pictured above, located at about 15N and 40W, as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. It ain't named yet; it's merely TD 6 for the moment. And it's unclear where it will go--but it bears watching. If ithis one does develop into a hurricane, as per the official forecast, as it continues to move westward, then the issue will be whether or not it's one of those storms that recurve out over the Atlantic without ever reaching the U.S.....
P.S.: If named, this storm will be Florence....
cmooney | September 1, 2006
[From CNN's Gallery on Hurricane John.]
So anyway, why am I so fascinated by the relationship between hurricanes and drinking? I present you with possible explanations in the form of a multiple choice question:
A. I grew up in New Orleans, home to the Hurricane and Pat O'Brien's.
B. I have been working so hard on my book about hurricanes that I haven't had any time to party.
C. Both A & B.
D. Neither A nor B, I just have a frat boy sense of humor.
You decide....
cmooney | September 1, 2006From a CNN story on those awaiting Hurricane John:
Paul Mares, another American, stocked up with a 12-pack of beer at a local store the evening before the hurricane was to strike, noting "it's good to be prepared."
cmooney | September 1, 2006The forecast team at Colorado State now says we're going to have a below average hurricane year in the Atlantic. They admit their last foreast for August was a "bust", because they had been unable to anticipate the high levels of African dust in the air that have been choking off storms, and the dryness in middle levels of the atmosphere. Gray and Klotzbach add that it looks more and more like El Nino conditions may be shaping up in the Pacific--and sure enough, we are seeing a lot of tropical storm activity over on the other side of Mexico. El Ninos tend to enhance Pacific hurricane activity…
cmooney | September 1, 2006
Here in DC, Ernesto's outmost bands seem to have moved in overnight. It's much cooler than it has been in ages and I expect the rain will be getting steadily worse. Which is fine by me: I plan on staying indoors and getting work done, both on the current book project and in anticipation of the upcoming RWOS paperback book tour. This Labor Day weekend seems the perfect one for it.
By contrast, last night I met a group of folks who said they were heading down from D.C. to the Outer Banks today to enjoy a more traditional Labor Day weekend--which means, driving into the heart of Ernesto. Good…
cmooney | August 31, 2006
For the first time (at least that I've noticed), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center makes it explicit--Supertyphoon Ioke may ultimately hit Japan. Granted, it will have weakened by then--but still. Here's how they put it:
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120 STY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO ITS TRACK INTO COOLER SSTS. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. A SLIGHT POLEWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE…
cmooney | August 31, 2006
This storm has less than 24 hours over water before getting acquainted with the Carolinas. But Ernesto is already stronger than it has been in quite a while: 55 mph winds, 996 mb of pressure. It's forecast to strengthen further, but it's all a question of how much....
Update: One possible answer to my question posed above is, we may never know. As Lixion Avila puts it in the latest forecast discussion:
SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY…
cmooney | August 30, 2006
If Supertyphoon Ioke keeps its present course, Wake Island will look very different after the 50 foot waves (and higher) have passed....
P.S.: Larger image available here. See also NASA's terrifying size comparison between the gigantic Supertyphoon and the tiny island.
cmooney | August 30, 2006
When Hurricane Ioke went out of the range of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and crossed the International Dateline, the last update said this:
IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.
Now the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, with new responsibility for Supertyphoon Ioke, says this:
THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED SUPER TYPHOON STATUS FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INTERNAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES, STY 01C IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISRUPTIVE SYNOPTIC…
cmooney | August 29, 2006
Something fascinating and more than a little spooky is happening right now with Hurricane John in the eastern Pacific. The storm is undergoing rapid intensifcation, so rapid that it has developed what forecasters call a "pinhole eye"--an extremely tight eyewall contraction evident in the image above. The same thing happened when Hurricane Wilma put on a record burst of intensification last year, building up from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.
The forecasters were more than a little surprised by Wilma's intensification, and they seem surprised by John as well.…
cmooney | August 29, 2006I heard no promise of Category 5 hurricane protections for New Orleans. Indeed, you can search the whole speech. It's vague on just how strong the rebuilt levees will ultimately be. The most explicit promise is this: "We're working to make the levees stronger than ever by 2010, and we will study what we need to do to give New Orleans even greater protection."
We'll study it. Wow, that sure inspires confidence.
cmooney | August 28, 2006
It looks like Supertyphoon Ioke could completely overwash one of the U.S. possessions in the Pacific--the tiny Wake Island, which is comprised of 3 coral atolls and houses about 200 people who have now been evacuated. Apparently the whole thing could be entirely underwater from this massive and dangerous storm, currently posting maximum sustained winds of 130 knots, or almost 150 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (which also says Ioke is creating 46 foot waves). All of which means that nothing other than concrete could be left intact on Wake if this thing hits…
cmooney | August 28, 2006Well, the paperback is officially out now (though I haven't yet seen it in an actual store...) Books continue to ship from Amazon and, I assume, from other outlets.
Meanwhile, tomorrow is the anniversary of Katrina. I'm going to have some more politically oriented thoughts on this later, but here just a brief personal recap:
* My Mom just had her destroyed house in Lakeview bulldozed--finally. This was a huge relief. It took forever to make it happen--just like everything does in New Orleans.
* Neither my Dad nor my younger brother sustained much damage to their houses due to the sheer luck…
cmooney | August 27, 2006
Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane, and appears to be one of those spooky ones that comes up through the Caribbean bouncing off of islands as if in a pinball machine, before finally expending its fury against the Gulf Coast. "Unfortunately," in the words of forecaster Stacy Stewart, the track has recently been adjusted so that Ernesto could be aimed towards some very vulnerable areas of Florida, namely, the Keys and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg. Of course, anything could still happen, but the new projected track is a disturbing one. Moreover, the NHC sees little reason not to expect a major…