Policy and Politics
tfk | November 8, 2006Last night was an unmitigated Democratic victory. Democrats control Kansas politics to an historic degree. Nationally, Democrats won not just the House, but took stronger positions in state legislatures and Governors' mansions. And the Senate is still in play.
Furthermore, the success of minimum wage initiatives was a strong endorsement of a progressive agenda.
The Republican party clearly lost big, especially the President. But even more so, the religious authoritarians lost in this election. Parental notification laws were rejected in Oregon and California, and South Dakota rolled…
tfk | November 8, 2006
Congressman Moore congratulates Nancy Boyda. Moore will be a little less isolated in Congress with another Kansas Democrat to work with.
More photos below the fold.
Yer's truly with the newest Congresswoman from Kansas. Note the KCFS shout-out.
One of the Moore grandchildren celebrating her grandpa's return to the House.
Dennis Moore celebrates another victory for moderation.
tfk | November 7, 2006The predictions
Sebelius 57% (based on SUSA polling)
Morrison 54% (below SUSA's last poll, negative ad campaigns will make people think twice)
Moore 60% (Chuck who?)
Boyda 51% (This race will go down to the wire)
Weiss 53% (McDonald did well in the primary, add in Democratic votes and Weiss wins)
Wempe 52% (an experienced local politician with solid fundraising)
The results:
Sebelius 58%
Morrison 58%
Moore 64%
Boyda 51%
Weiss 44%
Wempe 49%
We'll call the Sebelius and Boyda predictions perfect. I blew the Board races, and I gave Moore and Morrison too little credit. Two predictions too high…
tfk | November 7, 2006I promised that if Democrats took the House and Senate, I would not write anything political until the new year. Until the Virginia Senate race is resolved, I can still squeeze in a few last political posts.
The Boyda win certainly, as Diane says, shows that "even in the reddest of red states people have simply had enough of George W. Bush."
National polls showed that voters were unhappy with the direction the war in Iraq and the war on al Qaeda had taken, and George Bush's attempts in Kansas and elsewhere to stir people up about terrorism drove voters into Democratic arms. As one Boyda…
tfk | November 7, 2006Voters across the nation sent a clear signal about change by passing minimum wage hikes on state ballots. It's been far too long since the federal minimum wage was increased, and voters are getting anxious. Nancy Pelosi has made it clear she intends to pass such a raise, and it's impossible now for anyone to deny a mandate for that change.
There are a lot of lessons to be drawn from yesterday's election, but that one is pretty much impossible to ignore.
tfk | November 7, 2006In the election where Democrats took 27+ seats of the 435 in the House of Representatives, Democrats in Kansas took 6 seats in the state House. Moving from 42 Dems to 48 means that Republicans cannot override a veto on a party-line vote.
A popular Democratic governor and an unpopular Republican Attorney General at the top of the ticket can really change how people think about down-ticket races.
tfk | November 7, 2006I was hanging out with the Boyda gang when Speaker-to-be Pelosi called to congratulate Nancy Boyda.
Meanwhile it looks like Republicans swept the challenged Board of Ed seats. There will be 6 moderates on the Board, and I believe they've all stated a desire to see Bob Corkins fired, and all campaigned on establishing science standards that reflect the actually nature of science.
Nationally, George Bush got his ass handed to him. He came to Kansas to stump for Jim Ryun, and Ryun lost. He lost the House and possibly the Senate. Candidates across the country ran away from him or against…
tfk | November 7, 2006Rumors are circulating that Jim Ryun has conceded to Nancy Boyda.
Things are winding down here in Topeka, the media have left, but it looks like team Boyda is waiting for the final counts.
tfk | November 7, 2006The race had been close to tied, but at the end it broke heavily for Bacon.
Jana Shaver looks likely to win her race against Kent Runyan, and the race between Jack Wempe and Ken Willard is still too tight to call.
Moderates have a guaranteed majority, but it looks like it won't be as large as I would like.
It looks like Deborah Owens Fink lost in Ohio, so that's some consolation.
tfk | November 7, 2006Dennis Moore took a brief victory lap before heading to Topeka for the state Democratic Party's celebration. Ahner has conceded.
Nancy Boyda retains a 6 point lead with half of the precincts reporting. Ryun may have to take a lobbying job soon now.
Board of Ed races are still too close to call, except for Cauble.
Update: Am now in Topeka. Boyda announced victory, but some votes were misreported from one county, which narrowed her lead. This one will go down to the wire.
tfk | November 7, 2006It looks likely that Republican Sally Cauble will win the State Board of Ed. seat in western Kansas. Not a lot of precincts have reported, but the margin is huge and the district is Republican.
The Weiss/Bacon race is still too close, with only 8 of 295 districts reporting. The 9 of 400 districts reporting in the Wempe/Willard race are going for Wempe, but I expect that'll tighten up. The Runyan Shaver race is also tied.
Not a lot of surprises in the statewide races. Sebelius and Morrison are up by enormous margins, but the urban districts that report early will favor Democrats. Boyda's…
tfk | November 7, 2006Everyone seems to be making numeric predictions, so here we go:
Sebelius 57% (based on SUSA polling)
Morrison 54% (below SUSA's last poll, negative ad campaigns will make people think twice)
Moore 60% (Chuck who?)
Boyda 51% (This race will go down to the wire)
Weiss 53% (McDonald did well in the primary, add in Democratic votes and Weiss wins)
Wempe 52% (an experienced local politician with solid fundraising)
And anyone who thinks these numbers mean anything is crazy. Go vote and prove me wrong.
tfk | November 7, 2006In the key races for Board of Education and the US House, the balance of power rests on who can turn out the most voters. Republicans love to crow about their system, and in Kansas that system is dominated by church-based groups.
Democratic volunteers are out knocking doors, ringing phones and driving voters to polls. If you can help those efforts, now is the time. And if you just want to give a few friends a call and remind them to vote, that's important, too. My guess is that Don Weiss, Jack Wempe and Nancy Boyda will not have clear answers until every vote is counted. If you didn't…
tfk | November 7, 2006Grab three friends, toss them in your car, go to your polling place, and vote.
I have my preferences: Sebelius, Morrison, Moore, Boyda, Wempe, Weiss, Runyan, Cauble, Bill Shirley, Paul Davis, Barbara Ballard, Tom Holland, Cindy Neighbor, Raj Goyle, Marty Keenan, Dennis Phillips.
But hey, I understand if you disagree (or don't live in Kansas where any of those races matter). My first priority is that you vote. Nothing will change unless people show up and the polls and elect people who will change things.
As an incentive to vote for my choices (or your local Democratic Congressional…
tfk | November 6, 2006Kevin Vranes gives some insights into what to expect after the election:
The D's will have to make a choice between doing serious oversight of the executive branch and pushing a strong leadership/change agenda. In this I agree with what David Wessel of the WSJ told NPR this morning. The D's can spend 80% of their time doing one of those but not both. … Meanwhile, some inside Congress will realize that their real need is to try to get some important things done in advance of the 2008 election.
My assumption at this point is that we'll have a Senate that's tied, maybe with a D majority, maybe…
tfk | November 6, 2006TPM and TPM Muckraker have been following the story of illegal calls being made by the NRCC to try to smear Democratic candidates. The plan seems to be to call, say "I'm calling with information about Democrat X," and then either hang up and call back right away, or just make some negative comment. In violation of federal law, the calls fail to identify who paid for them at the beginning, and in some cases have reached people on no call lists, making it doubly illegal.
Nancy Boyda's campaign is reporting that similar calls are being made in the Kansas 2nd. We've discussed similar calls…
tfk | November 6, 2006Yesterday, the President told Kansas: "if you vote Democrat, you're voting for a tax increase."
In fact, the exact opposite is true. Were this a Woody Allen movie, I'd pull Marshall McLuhan Milton Friedman from behind a movie poster to explain for me. It is not, so I'll pull out Max Sawicky:
There are no tax cuts. Banish that phrase from your mind. You haven't seen any.
Republican control of the White House and Congress has yielded trillions in tax increases since January of 2001. How can this be? Simple. When you spend more, and when you pass laws that commit the government to spending…
tfk | November 5, 2006The final SurveyUSA poll of the Kansas election is out. Morrison has 56% support, Sebelius has 57%.
The interesting elections will be the KS-2 House race, several state house races, and the Board of Ed races.
tfk | November 5, 2006
A month ago, Democracy Corps released a survey showing that Democrats were showing remarkable strength in the most competetive 49 House races. On a conference call announcing the results, James Carville quipped that Dick Cheney must be coming out to stump for Jim Ryun in Kansas because that's the only place he could go.
Now the President is on his way (perhaps already on the ground. I won't be attending the event (it didn't seem worth trying to get the Ryun people to give me press credentials), so I'm glad to see that Joel Mathis is live-blogging events inside the Expocenter, and WIBW will…