June 3, 2016
... may or may not form over the next several days.
There is a disturbance that has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical storm some time between now and the middle of next week. This will head out to the wet and not menace the US mainland, as is typical (but not inevitable) for Eastern Pacific…
June 3, 2016
Update Monday June 6 AM: TropicalStorm Colin is heading for Florida.
The disturbance first noted a few days ago east of the Yucatan has moved across the mainland, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and with the relatively warm sea surfaces there as a source of inspiration, turned into Colin, a…
June 2, 2016
UPSATE. The motion has been denied. Rather hilariously, bt the way.
Professor Michael Mann vs. Shock Jock Mark Steyn
You all know about the libel suit filed by Professor Michael Mann against Canadian right wing radio shock jock Mark Steyn. Steyn made apparently libelous comments linking Mann, who…
May 27, 2016
Trending wetter with time: weather never moves in a straight line, but data from NOAA NCDC shows a steady increase in the percentage of the USA experiencing extreme 1-day rainfall amounts since the first half of the 20th century. Photograph: NOAA NCDC
My Apology to Paul Douglas
I admit that I do a…
May 26, 2016
This is a press release that just came across my desk that I thought would be of interest to you.
High-drama at low-key follow up to UN Climate Change Agreement in Paris
Bonn, Germany - United Nations climate change negotiations today concluded their first session since the adoption of the Paris…
May 26, 2016
Friday, May 27, 11 AM cst
The probability of this disturbance turning into a tropical storm has been upgraded to 90%, and this transformation is expected to happen some time this evening or on Saturday.
Once that happens, the NWS will probably start issuing maps and probability information for…
May 26, 2016
With Hurricane Season starting in a few days, I thought I'd post a list of the names that will be used this year.
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
Alex, of course, was already used as a name,…
May 26, 2016
I want to tell you about a great new book that has one forgivable flaw, which I’ll mention at the end. But first, a word from Bizarro Land. This is about the Grand Canyon.
I would think that the Grand Canyon would be the last thing that creationists would point to as proof of a young earth (…
May 26, 2016
This post intentionally left blank.
May 26, 2016
I'm not anti-government. I'm pro civilization. But I'm also an anarchist, of a sort. I think institutions should be dissolved and reformed regularly. What really happens is that institutions add bits and pieces over time, in response to things that happen, as solutions to interim problems, until…
May 25, 2016
There is a new technology that can convert both solar and wind energy into electricity in such a way that it is suitable for use on urban rooftops.
Here's the abstract from the paper describing this work:
To realize the sustainable energy supply in a smart city, it is essential to maximize energy…
May 23, 2016
The Democratic National Convention Committee has announced who will be on the all important Platform Drafting Committee. The committee will include an impressive mix of Clinton and Sanders supporters, as well as a key member associated with climate change activism.
The committee is assembled by…
May 21, 2016
As you know, I’ve been running a model to predict the outcomes of upcoming Democratic Primary contests. The model has change over time, as described below, but has always been pretty accurate. Here, I present the final, last, ultimate version of the model, covering the final contests coming up in…
May 19, 2016
Sea levels are going to rise
The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere directly and indirectly determines the sea level. The more CO2 the higher the sea level. The details matter, the mechanism is complex, and as CO2 levels change, it takes an unknown amount of time for the sea level…
May 17, 2016
I've got a new post up at 10,000 Birds on a study looking at changing populations of several hundred common species of birds in Europe and North America (mainly the US).
The two subcontinents exhibit dramatically different patterns, as shown in the enigmatic graph above.
Go to the post to unravel…
May 17, 2016
As Rachel points out, the first one is pretty conventional. The second one is a killer. Have a look:
May 17, 2016
I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don't feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case.
Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today's…
May 17, 2016
The story goes that if you do, it will stay in your digestive track for seven years. Is this true?
According to the Mayo Clinic,
Although chewing gum is designed to be chewed and not swallowed, it generally isn't harmful if swallowed. Folklore suggests that swallowed gum sits in your stomach for…
May 17, 2016
Remember that big wild fire that threatened, and damaged, Fort MacMurray, causing major evacuation in the oil sands mining region of Canada?
Well, the fire never went out and has now changed directions to threaten settlements again.
__________
Update (mid day Tuesday): The fire is now actually…
May 16, 2016
First, Sanders lost Nevada because Hillary Clinton won the caucus.
Then, the Sanders campaign put their ground game into effect, in an effort to overtake Clinton during the nearly-unique-to-Nevada process that allows for changes in pledged delegates at later caucuses. But he didn't get enough…
May 16, 2016
The trick to understanding evolution is less about finding good answer to questions, but rather, finding good questions to answer.
Read that sentence twice, because it is very important.
Years ago, Niko Tinbergen developed a method of formulating questions about biology. I'm pretty sure the…
May 13, 2016
I'm just passing this information on, I've not handled this device. But the price and performance seem like such a sweet spot that I am compelled to tell you about it. Let me know in the comments if you have experience with this item.
The Dragon Touch M8 2016 Edition 8 inch Quad Core Tablet is a…
May 13, 2016
You've heard the phrase, "Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution," an insightful phrase penned in 1972 by Theodosius Dobzhansky. I would like to add a second part to that phrase, and it goes like this: "... and, nothing in evolution makes sense except in the light of co-…
May 12, 2016
This year's Atlantic Hurricane season will be stronger, forecasts suggest, than that of the previous two years, and stronger than the average year.
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasons starts on June 1st. But, there was a hurricane that happened already, either late in last year's season or very early…
May 12, 2016
Subtitle: Politicians School Scientists In How To Do It
Alternative Title: Where were Bernie and Hillary????
You need to know right away that the Lede to this story is buried way the hell down the page.
That’s OK, though, because others are covering this, and the point of my missive is to put the…
May 10, 2016
This is a segment of The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann, in which climate scientist Professor Michael Mann provides important perspective on the link between climate change and other disasters such as tornadoes. (See also: The Meaning of the Fort McMurray Fire).
Michael Mann is the author of The…
May 10, 2016
How about a television series made by some very talented people set in the context of a Renaissance Festival?
That, lords and ladies, is the plan.
Renfest is a serial set in a RenFest, filmed at an actual Renfest, that combines the themes of "office politics," a sort of anachronistic Big-Bang…
May 10, 2016
I'll combine my post predicting the outcome of today's Democratic Primary in West Virginia, and my post giving and discussing the results, here.
My prediction is on this table, on the left side of the line, and the actual results on the right side, for the last several primaries.
Every state is…
May 8, 2016
Super Delegates exist for good reasons. In order for them to do their job, which hopefully is never, they need to have two characteristics. These are:
1) The capacity for thoughtful and well informed decision making at the convention, in case something untoward has happened to require this.
2)…
May 7, 2016
Bernie does not want his people to disrupt speeches. He's OK with outside protests. He wants to do everything he can to stop Trump.
