So: I have just gone and done something really stupid in my latest "Storm Pundit" column--namely, made an eminently falsifiable (and almost certainly incorrect) prognostication.
More specifically: I hazarded the very hazardous prediction that there will be four more Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones globally in 2007. Go here to see my reasoning behind this only mildly informed guess.
And get ready to make merciless fun of me if/when I turn out to be wrong....
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Careful now, Chris. Your forecasts haven't been too good this season.
Like most global warming alarmists, you now have a financial interest in the occurrence of negative events. However, you must balance this against the potential long-term hit against your credibility.
You are fully aware that this Atlantic season, like last, is below average. Moreover, we would need for the rest of October and November to have 50% again as much cyclone activity as the entire season has had until now -- just to get to the median.
I will go out on a limb and say that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of this Atlantic Season will end up below the 55-year mean of 102.3. (Season-to-date total is 60.2). Care to place a wager?
Neuro says,"Like most global warming alarmists, you now have a financial interest in the occurrence of negative events. However, you must balance this against the potential long-term hit against your credibility."
Well, he's half right. Nobody seems to care if "scary" predictions never materialize. The soothsayers are forgiven for "erring on the side of caution".
Hard to see making hay presenting the facts supporting natural variability. Imagine a book called "Pretty much the same world". It might be difficult to get Katie Couric to hold that one up during an interview.
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