If more stable exit polls come in, and younger voters did show up, I'll take back what I'm about to say (I dig data):
The percentage of younger voters in Iowa was absurdly high.
According to ABC News, it looks like about 17% of the New Hampshire electorate was under 30, while in Iowa, the under 30 electorate was 22%. Something to keep in mind.
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I'm not sure why people are shocked by last night's results; it wasn't that surprising:
As I laid out here, Iowa had a much higher percentage of 18-29 voters than did New Hampshire, probably because the calendar, combined with the time involved in caucusing, meant that students home on break would…
I've seen several people linking to Andrew Gelman's analysis of voting in the election, which is generally good and interesting. I would like to quibble about one thing he says, though. After noting that young voters overwhelmingly went for Obama, he says:
But there was no massive turnout among…
I wrote about what I thought might happen in the New Hampshire primary a few days ago, but enough new stuff has happened to make it worth revisiting.
Who will win the New Hampshire GOP Primary?
And, perhaps more important, who will come in second, third, and fourth?
We know that Donald Trump…
Was checking out the exit poll data. Two things that jumped out at me....
Here are the votes for Obama from non-blacks in the South Carolina primary by age:
18-29 - 52%
30-44 - 25%
45-59 - 23%
60+ - 15%
Here are the votes by income for Edwards:
Under $15,000 - 14%
$15,000-$30,000 - 15%
$30,000-$50…
There were some rumblings and unconfirmed anecdotes that some of the young-uns at the Iowa caucuses were short-term Illionis imports. Who knows?
Give away iPhones and Wiis and THEN we will vote :P
I jest-- All my friends and I vote! We make it peer pressure :D
The interesting question to me, if so, is: why was the Iowa election so heavy on young people, and why was NH not? Why was it that the Obama campaign's attempts to young voters were effective in Iowa, and not here? Was it something about the nature of a caucus versus a primary? Was it about where the Obama campaign focused their GOTV efforts? Did something in the news or polls in the last four days effect turnout? Was it what Coturnix suggests? And if it has something to do with caucus vs primary, then what should we expect to happen in Nevada?
Coin,
As I suggested in this post, I think have a bunch of college students on break who can spend between 6-10pm on a worknight at a caucus greatly inflated the relative 18-29 turnout.
Just to make another point related to the above: regarding the extremely high relative youth turnout in Iowa, my hunch is that Iowa will be the exception, not the rule.