Random
catdynamics | October 5, 2008So how did the li'lest economy get frozen first?
So Iceland's economy is facing an interesting shock, first banks failing and now foreign currency reserves running out.
How they got there is interesting, and also a pointer to how they'll get out.
(this is my perspective, from the outside, I am not a financial analyst)
Iceland deregulated in the late 80s and 90s, moving from an economy hinged on a single line of export, to an aggressive modern anglo-american style post-industrial economy, tech heavy, and heavily leveraged making aggressive finanical investments in niche markets.
Iceland got…
catdynamics | October 3, 2008head of major supermarket in Iceland encourages people to hoard food and to stop buying foreign products
no currency for food imports
this is a cultural catastrophe, no more cheerios for breakfast, the kids will have to eat skyr
CEO of Bonus, a major Icelandic grocery market says their foreign wholesalers are refusing lines of credit through Icelandic banks and demanding cash payment before supplying further goods. The store has been refused foreign currency.
This was 4 pm friday afternoon.
He encourages people to hoard food and to start buying locally produced goods only.
I guess the…
catdynamics | October 3, 2008we are in for some interesting times
I don't know how many people saw the Bank Limits Fund Access by Colleges article in the NY Times thursday
this is the sort of thing happening more frequently and triggering problems.
In this case a bank limited withdrawals on a fund invested in short term bonds, used by a large group of universities to roll over funding - these things are common, keeping a lot of cash in banks is a bad idea, but it has to be rolled over somewhere.
The problem is no that the debt has gone bad, but that the fund is no longer revolving since the bank can not manage it, so…
catdynamics | October 3, 2008Linking is a public good y'know
hos has a cathartic rant about the bailout
The TED spread is 3.86 this afternoon - that is after the bailout passed.
If you know what the TED spread is you should now be tasting vomit in your throat.
LIBOR is also spiking, natch.
The US usually quotes the "U3" index for the unemployment rate.
The U6 rate is in many ways a more robust measure, but a lot scarier.
It is also more like what some European governments report when they state "the unemployment rate", or so I am told.
PhysioProf explains about applying for faculty positions - you listen!
Chad worries…
catdynamics | October 3, 2008The US financial crisis is causing an implosion in Iceland, which is forcing a cascade into the European financial system.
Serious talk of a bank holiday and food hoarding has been heard.
Head of largest oil company says oil imports may cease because of lack of US dollars.
Last week one of Iceland's commercial banks went bankrupt and was nationalized over the weekend.
The root cause of the implosion is that the Icelandic commercial banks overextended aggressive investments and were over leveraged, so when the world economy went bad they got squeezed.
The proximate cause of the collapse is…
catdynamics | October 3, 2008drizzly dreary friday
and we drag ourselves to the Great iPod, and we ask: will we ever see from Hubble again?
Whoosh goes the randomizer.
Whoosh.
The Covering: Það Vantar Spútur - Olga Guðrún
The Crossing: Jingle Bell Rock - Bobby Helms
The Crown: Lifetime Piling Up - Talking Heads
The Root: Eleanor Rigby - Beatles
The Past: Love You To - Beatles
The Future: The Firebird VI: Lullaby
The Questioner: Máríátlan Mín Mín
The House: two and two - jesus jones
The Inside: the tailor and the mouse
The Outcome: brass in pocket pretenders
The Covering hits the tone: "do you know those kids who sit…
catdynamics | October 1, 2008The Apple Pro-Sessions Science Blogging panel is done, and jolly good fun it was too.
Good crowd, very good questions and decent banter - interesting to meet the various sciblings, including the ringers in the crowd.
The last question, and I paraphrase, was interesting:
"What one thing should the next President understand about science?"
There were several good answers, mine was:
"The next President must understand that you CAN NOT make your own reality"
here is the original:
"The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people…
catdynamics | October 1, 2008don't forget ScienceBloggers go wild in the Big Apple tonight at 7pm
somewhere in Soho
be there or be somewhere else
catdynamics | September 29, 2008Please.
The Federal Reserve, this morning, sent out a press release.
Watching the financial crisis unfold must be like what it would have been like if the LHC had been turned on, and promptly made a small stable black hole that fell out and started eating the Earth.
Predicted in some theories, considered vanishingly unlikely, and fascinating in so many ways, were it not for the medium term consequences.
So, question is whether Hank and Bernie are fast enough and dextrous enough to get a charge on that sucker and then move it into confinement before it gets too massive to control.
"In…
catdynamics | September 29, 2008the financial crisis spreads to Iceland
the financial markets are in turmoil outside the US also
mortgage companies, investment banks and insurance groups are collapsing in the UK, Belgium and Germany as well as the US, with the trouble likely to spread further
now one of Iceland's major investment banks has collapsed leading to a partial nationalization, with the Icelandic government assuming a 75% ownership and injecting about a billion dollar to recapitalize the bank after losses
Glitnir is one of the three big commercial banks in Iceland who expanded aggressively into foreign markets…
catdynamics | September 28, 2008the US can not afford to start another war, it does not have the forces or the finance
so... clearly it is time to contemplate stupidest possible scenarios...
A lot of interesting little things have happened in the world.
Russia is moving fleet units to Venezuela, Syria and Somalia. Venezuela also gets some visiting Bear Recon/Bomber planes, with Cuban layovers.
The ships in Venezuela and Syria seem to partly there to rub some noses and distract, and partly as "don't you dare bomb here" - much like US sixth fleet ships rushing to Georgian ports last month. The Somalian deployment is…
catdynamics | September 26, 2008tra la la la tra la la la
tra la la la tra la la la
we're making the world safe for capitalism
tra la la la
catdynamics | September 26, 2008soggy cool friday, and a new beginning at hand
so, we slosh to the Mighty iPod, and ask: that Super Earth we conjecture to be in transit, is it wet or dry?
Woosh goes the randomizer.
Whoosh.
The Covering: I Wanna Be Lover - Elvis Costello
The Crossing: Police & Thieves - Clash
The Crown: Grænmetisvísur - Thorbjorn Egner
The Root: Which Side Are You On? - Billy Bragg
The Past: Young Person's Guide to the Orchestra: Percussion
The Future: Garageland - Clash
The Questioner: Valentine's Day is Over - Billy Bragg
The House: Apollo 8. Pas de deux (Apollon et Terpsichore) - Stravinsky
The…
catdynamics | September 26, 2008he was one of those big boys
who went to high school
and came back as well rounded mystical men
The Seattle Times reports: that though vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin claimed in her ABC television interview with Gibson that she had never met with the leader of another nation.
She has in fact met with at least one, the President of Iceland, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, the week of Oct 15th-18th, when they met privately for about an hour during the Arctic Energy Symposium.
Óli is actually back in Alaska this week for another Arctic Issues forum.
Now, I know he's an ex-Professor, of…
catdynamics | September 26, 2008in case you missed it, Jon totally nailed the situation on the Daily Show last night
'cause y'know linking is an intrinsic good
catdynamics | September 23, 2008with all the turmoil, it is good to think about how houses are bought in the US
Now
We'll do a first order estimate, it scales linearly with changes in income and is an adequate approximation to understand how things work. Now.
Unless you have a lot of cash, you need to get a loan to buy a house.
This is typically a fixed rate loan, secured by the house as collateral, and we'll estimate an 8% interest. Simple interest will do as first order estimate. Doing the full compound estimate is trivial and an exercise for the reader. The loan term will be 15 or 30 years typically. Long enough that…
catdynamics | September 22, 2008we need to make the political personal
Hank Paulson, US Secretary for the Treasury, wants a "clean" bill to bailout the investment banks.
$700 billion, he disposes, no review or oversight.
Now, there is an argument that the bailout will lead to a probable profit for the taxpayer in the long run.
The argument is that forced sales of mortgage bonds have driven prices too low, and that vulture investors are waiting to pick them up for too low a price, after the banks go under due to positive feedback driving down asset prices, and the government must not only save the banks (for systemic reasons…
catdynamics | September 22, 2008Its nice and quick and clean and gets things done
Away with excess enemy
But no less value to property
catdynamics | September 22, 2008Fury at Lehman bonus
Here is an bit of financial news from the UK that might have been overlooked...
Fury at Lehman $2.5 billion bonus
When Lehman went bankrupt, the company had a market value of about $3 billion.
In a move foreshadowing subsequent events, the company had paid half the year end bonus to staff at the end of June.
Hours before the collapse of the firm, Lehman transferred $8 billion from its UK subsidiary to the US, leaving no money even for salaries owed to UK staff.
The administrator of the European operations group would like that money back, although there may not be much…