William M. Connolley
stoat
Posts by this author
April 21, 2013
Answer: both are complex disciplines. But because they deal with every-day events, amateurs regularly assume that they know enough to dismiss the entire field.
Suppose you wanted to know what was wrong with climatology: how far is it really understood, what can it usefully describe and what not,…
April 17, 2013
Continuing an occasional series on non-notable folk. Marcel Leroux stirred up the septics quite a bit. By contrast, who cares about Tim Ball? He was declared [[WP:NN]] some time ago but then someone recreated his page. And so we have [[Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Tim Ball]] (Tim, Timmy, Timothy…
April 12, 2013
As regular readers will be aware, I think the ETS is stupid, and we should be imposing a carbon price via carbon taxes instead (Time for carbon taxes? and refs therein, if you're interested in the history).
But David Hone isn't, he likes the ETS, and nice person that he undoubtedly is, it cannot be…
April 8, 2013
Apologies; another wiki post. Though since palaeo reconstructions are in all the news, nowadays (sidenote: is [[Shaun Marcott]] notable? Or is it just his paper that is notable? I think I'd argue the latter. Discuss) this is topical.
So: the wiki Hockey stick controversy page is long and thorough (…
April 6, 2013
The answer, obviously, is that they're all controversial. And (as measured by talk page size) they're the top-5 most controversial articles on wikipedia: see [[Wikipedia:Database reports/Talk pages by size]] (I'm discounting #1, "Main page", for the obvious reason). The only surprising entry in the…
April 4, 2013
A classic from the Daily Mash:
NORTH Korea is not an elaborate modern art installation, as previously suspected. As the tiny nation seemed to be genuinely threatening the United States with a nuclear strike, experts said it was now likely that Kim Jong Un and his late father are not ground-…
April 1, 2013
I haven't called anyone a tosser recently, indeed I think that RP Jr is the first 2013 winner of this most prestigious of awards. I believe that Sr was the last winner, almost a year ago. And I bestow this award sadly, because despite my naughty words I still have a deal of respect for RP (Jr and…
March 30, 2013
Wildly exciting, no? No: its just the Global Cooling wars, part n. This one is Lamb, H. H. Is the Earth’s Climate Changing? The UNESCO Courier: a window open on the world; Vol. XXVI (8/9), 17-20, and its the latest "killer" reference added to Poptech (tagline: the blog that's too frightened to let…
March 29, 2013
More from buzzfeed.
While I'm here, Sham journals scam authors is pretty good from JA. But really: a journal with no website? Do they still write with ink quills?
March 28, 2013
The Economist is read by all the most Important People (what, you say you don't read it? Well...), so what they say about GW matters (even if they sometimes talk twaddle it still matters). What they are currently saying under the byline "Climate change may be happening more slowly than scientists…
March 25, 2013
I'm sure my headline is over-optimistic. But its certainly looking good, compared to the doom-laden view mid week. And (insofar as I can tell, not having any specialised insight) the correct solution has been found - so much so, that you might wonder why it wasn't found immeadiately. And that…
March 20, 2013
The Daily Fail has been lying to the public again says says KK but he sneaks in a dig at the Grauniad on GMOs as he passes, for balance. QS notes that Myles Allen has a column in the Graun about the same (not the GMOs, obviously, you wouldn't get that past the Graun) which seems bizarrely…
March 19, 2013
Eli offers us a new wheelchair but I think its a man slumped to the ground after smashing his head against the wall, leaving a trail of blood dribbling down.
Refs
* The two epochs of Marcott by Jos Hagelaars.
* WUWT is still fulminating (I throw that in as a token gesture of non-tribality, but you…
March 18, 2013
Its hardly an original question. And the answer (we don't know) isn't original either. In case you were wondering, this is Overland and Wang, GRL 2013, doi: 10.1002/grl.50316 (PDF courtesy of V). Different but not entirely different to A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?, also in GRL; or…
March 15, 2013
What could possibly be a more coherent, convincing and above all evidence-based argument than this?
SIR – You were wrong to attack the financial-transactions tax (FTT) that is being implemented by 11 European Union states (“Bin it”, February 23rd). You dragged up the bad experience of Sweden, which…
March 14, 2013
Apparently, something called "climategate 3.0" has occurred. This caused massive excitement in the denialosphere for a day, but now everyone has quietly forgotten it. You can tell its a damp squib because the only even vaguely "mainstream" news report of it that WUWT can find is a blog piece by…
March 13, 2013
All over the world (my path: Timmy -> Torygraph -> google -> Nude scientist -> JOGMEC press release -> JOGMEC) there is excitement about "Japan cracks seabed 'ice gas' in dramatic leap for global energy". Which is indeed interesting, but not quite as dramatic as suggested. Because…
March 12, 2013
This is not the sea ice post you were looking for. However, it is a placeholder for putting comments, including linking to previous comments.
If I'm feeling energetic I may even make the linkages myself.
The pic shows seaice at "normal" ish; but that means little, as 2012 was also "normal" at this…
March 11, 2013
Well, no-one has said what I wanted to say about this, so I thought I should. Click on the image for P3's take. This is about Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix's latest in Science. If you want to read some stupid things said about it, try Curry (surprise) or if you…
March 3, 2013
From the bizarre discoveries file:
The Plover and the Clover can be told apart with ease,
By paying close attention to the habits of the Bees,
For en-to-molo-gists aver, the Bee can be in Clover,
While ety-molo-gists concur, there is no B in Plover.
and this is by Robert Wood, who did early work…
March 2, 2013
Not my pic alas, but one picked up from Top 10 Incredibly Beautiful Tree Tunnels via TPP. Photo credit is pawelklarecki.blogspot.ro.
The quality of light in the upper branches is gorgeous - the trees seem to be holding the light.
March 1, 2013
Just when you thought this tripe was dead, it comes round again. Well, its winter at least in this hemisphere, and a bit chilly, so perhaps it seems plausible - the septics usually have trouble telling weather from climate.
Anyway, your reference is We’re number 1! which provises you a handy link…
March 1, 2013
I'm referring to the fools trying to p*ss around with how banks pay their staff. It am all over de noos, and to spare the blushes of some of my more delicate readers I won't refer you to Timmy, you can have the Graun instead: Don't cap bank bonuses, scrap them. The EU's plan to cap bonuses sounds…
February 25, 2013
Having a comment policy is a good idea. But then it can be fun to test the limits of other people's (cite, in case the limits turn out to be as hard as announced).
Errm, pinch-and-a-punch, first of the month, no returns :-)
You can use this thread to discuss comment policy if you like.
February 25, 2013
Or so says Marginal Revolution (via Timmy). I repeat it here to wind up all the people who continually tell me how wonderful fuel efficiency standards are. Prediction: no-one will change their minds.
a gas tax provides immediate, direct incentives for drivers to reduce gasoline use, while the…
February 16, 2013
A fascinating paper, Why Do Voters Dismantle Checks and Balances? by Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson and Ragnar Torvik (h/t FE). There is a pile of maths in there, but you don't really need it and I only skimmed it. From the conclusions:
In many weakly-institutionalized democracies, particularly…
February 16, 2013
There is a nice article by DM at Planet3.0 on the Keystone XL pipeline. I almost didn't bother read it, 'cos I'm a bit bored by all that, but I'm glad I did because he gets it quite right in an illuminating way:
The anti-keystone movement, or more generally the entire anti-tar-sands movement, is…
February 11, 2013
Or, perhaps, not so strange, you might well say. I'm talking about Has Global Warming Stalled? I'm not sure what is supposed to be new about it - it looks like the same tired old stuff. The "gotcha" bit is supposed to be
The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr…
February 7, 2013
He moves in darkness as it seems to me / Not of woods only and the shade of trees.
The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man's Changing Vision of the Universe is a 1959 book by Arthur Koestler, and one of the main accounts of the history of cosmology and astronomy in the Western World, beginning in…