Hurricane
gregladen | September 8, 2010Because Igor is now a tropical storm.
Igor is not much of a storm yet, and is showing no clear pattern of increased intensification. However, Igor's current path will take the storm through a region where there will be very little to weaken it and a great deal of very warm water to strengthen it. There is a possibility that Igor will drift to the north, which would cause the storm to weaken. If not, there is a high potential of a large and powerful hurricane. Details.
gregladen | September 2, 2010As Earl bears down on North Carolina and environs (well, slides by rudely if not bears down) I'll be stepping back from regular discussions of the Tropical Weather situation as I engage in labor day weekend activities. Meanwhile, have a look at this post at the NASA web site with more interesting and sometimes freaky views of Earl's Eye.
gregladen | September 1, 2010As predicted, Gaston has emerged from from the ITCZ as a named tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. Unlike Fiona, Gaston will reach hurricane status, and in fact, there is a pretty good chance that Gaston will be a major hurricane. What matters, of course, is where it goes. In any event, formation of a hurricane and nearing land will not happen until Labor Day or later.
Meanwhile, Earl, which during the night Thursday and early morning Friday will be turning with 100 knot winds off the coast of the Carolinas, is getting some special attention from NASA. Here's a picture NASA…
gregladen | September 1, 2010North Carolina will receive hurricane warnings (a significant notch above watches) within a few hours, as the forecasted path for earl shift a bit to the west than previously thought and b) becomes less certain.
From NOAA/Hurricane Prediction Center:
Hurricane Watch:
North of Surf City North Carolina to Parramore Island Virginia including the Pamlico and Albermale Sounds
Tropical Storm Warning for San Salvador
Tropical Storm Watch for North Carolina Coast from Cape Fear to Surf City
You can expect, approximately, for the first of these watches to be upgraded to a warning soon.
Thursday…
gregladen | August 31, 2010Despite rather bizarre rumors to the contrary, Earl was never headed straight for Haiti, but it is a large and strong hurricane, and strong tropical force winds are affecting and will continue to affect the northern regions of the island.
Earl is now a Category Four hurricane and will remain so for the next few days, possibly strengthening tomorrow morning following what looks like an eye-wall replacement cycle.
UPDATE: Earl is sitill a Category Four storm.
There is now a watch for North of Surf City , North Carolina to the NC/Virginia Border, and a Tropical Storm Watch from Cape Fear to…
gregladen | August 30, 2010Danielle is now a Tropical Storm heading to it's watery grave west of Iceland. Earl, on the other hand, has a non-zero chance of hitting something.
Earl has become a hurricane, and is seemingly leveling off in its intensity. Earl is a Category Four storm with maximum sustained winds of almost 135 mph (214 kph) and stronger gusts.
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Turks and Caicos islands are threatened with hurricane level storm activity.
Earl is going to turn to the north and eventually northeast, but the storm will be heading roughly in the direction of North Carolina (which…
gregladen | August 29, 2010Earl may threaten the US Virgin Islands and Pueto Rico with hurricane force winds. These areas will be affected by tropical storm force winds. Antigua, Barbuda, Monserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla, Saint Martin and Satin Barthelemy, St. Marten, Saba and St. Eustatius are under hurricane warnings, and a hurricane watch is in effect for the British and US Virgin Islands, Peurto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. This is all going to happen right away: Today, tomorrow, the next day.
Earl is only a tropical storm, Earl was upgraded to hurricane status as I was writing this post. Earl seems to…
gregladen | August 27, 2010Here's a pretty picture from the Atlantic:
That, dear reader, is what an active hurricane season looks like.
The stuff you see on the left, near Louisiana and across Florida to the Atlantic, is is just crappy weather.
Near the middle of the picture, you can see a very nicely formed hurricane, and that's Danielle. Danielle is a strong hurricane, Category Four and is getting stronger. Sustained winds are near 135 MPH (214 KPH) with higher gusts. By tomorrow at this time, if not later today, Danielle could become a Category Five storm. Bermuda will be experiencing dangerous surf, and…
gregladen | August 25, 2010Earl, previously known as tropical depression 07, is now Tropical Storm Earl, and is cranking up through this 'middle school' phase of the cyclone life cycle so quickly that by the time you read this Earl might be a hurricane. Or in his case, a himicane.
This is the fifth tropical storm of the current season. Earl is expected to encounter few of the effects that tend to attenuate hurricanes, and global-warming cooked seas over the coming hours. The storm will likely reach hurricane status by Friday. By Monday the storm's center will be north of the Antilles and veering to the north or…
gregladen | August 25, 2010Danielle is a hurricane again. Not real well organized but showing signs of getting its act together, Danielle will likely continue to strengthen for a couple/few days, remain a hurricane for a couple of days, then start weakening in about five days. This is all going to happen out in the middle of the Atlantic, which is, of course, where Bermuda is. But, there are no coastal warnings in effect now.
The other system that has been forming A number, "7", has been given to the system that has been developing in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands is getting better organized and will…
gregladen | August 24, 2010Danielle is unraveling. Meteroloigsts are using words like "disorganized" and "decreased dvorak estimates" and "downgrading" and finally, have decided that she is no longer a hurricane. Tropical Strom Danielle may well reintensify into a hurricane, and in fact, she may become a rather intense storm by the weekend. But she'll still be out in the middle of the ocean by then.
A new system, still very near the west coast of Africa, is staring to blow up. This is currently close to the Cape Verde Islands. Changes are happening here very quickly, and there is a very good chance that this…
gregladen | August 23, 2010This has been a very quiet hurricane season considering that it was predicted to be active and intense. The fourth named storm is only now developing in the Atlantic, and it is a hurricane named Danielle.
Danielle, just upgraded to a hurricane, appears to be intensifying quickly.
Danielle is now far out to sea and is turning northwest, heading roughly in the direction of Bermuda, but quite possibly too far north of Bermuda to matter much, if current predictions hold. In short, Danielle is not predicted at this time to make any significant landfall. It is likely that this storm, in one…
gregladen | August 11, 2010No, no, probably not, although I did receive my first BP Oil Spill denialist comment this morning. Nonetheless, we have had very little in the way of storms that might develop into hurricanes.
The best I can do for you now is Tropical Depression FIVE, which is sitting in the Gulf and heading for New Orleans, where it will be a very bad storm with heavy rain and wind ... an actual "tropical storm" ... but not enough of a problem to do much other than remember to close the windows and cancel the soft ball game or whatever one does out doors for entertainment in August in Coastal Louisiana…
gregladen | August 9, 2010A tight little disturbance currently known as "Area 1" in the absolute middle of the Atlantic, and bering a 70 percent chance of forming a nameable feature.
If it does, it will be a "D" ... so consulting the list, that would be ... Danielle.
gregladen | August 5, 2010Named Tropical Depression Colin, which started to dissipate more quickly than expected yesterday, looks like it may be getting reorganized again. It is now just a low pressure area 300 miles north of the Virgin Islands, but probably contains some tropical storm force winds. It is possible that over the next two days Colin could strengthen and perhaps by Friday regain its tropical storm status.
There is even a possibility ... and not a small one .... that Colin could become a hurricane. Keep an eye on Colin.
gregladen | August 3, 2010Colin will almost certainly not become a strong hurricane or reach landfall as a hurricane, so we should be looking out for Danielle the next name in the sequence.
According to NOAA, Colin will continue to strength and follow a WNW path until curving north. It will maintain tropical storm status or possibly (ca 25% chance) reach low level hurricane strength at most between 1.4 and 4 days from now and stay that way for a few more days without strengthening. After that, the models diverge so a lot of different things could happen, but most likely dissipation.
(Keep in mind, of course, that…
gregladen | August 2, 2010And somewhat notable.
We are looking more closely than usual at hurricanes this season because this is expected to be a fairly intense year for this category of meteorological event. Tropical Depression Four is now located at about 12.6N 41.1W, otherwise known as out in the middle of the Atlantic. It is heading WNW at a speed that would put it north of Puerto Rico mid morning on Thursday.
At the moment, it looks like TD4 is going to grow, be a pain for ships in the area but not overly severe, then very possibly be mauled by upper level winds. The probably that this feature will develop in…
gregladen | August 27, 2009Danny is probably not going to become a hurricane, but it may cause some wet weather along the East Coast. But, I did want to draw your attention to a fun bit of animated video. Watch the baby ghost hurricane pop out of the left side of the storm:
CLICK HERE
If you don't look at this some dime today (Aug 27th) you'll probably miss it.
gregladen | February 26, 2009A "pre-existing condition" in the North Indian Ocean stoked the sudden intensification of last year's Tropical Cyclone Nargis just before its devastating landfall in Burma, according to a new NASA/university study. The cyclone became Burma's worst natural disaster ever and one of the deadliest cyclones of all time.
Scientists at the National Taiwan University, Taipei; and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., used data from satellite altimeters, measurements of ocean depth and temperature and an ocean model to analyze the ocean conditions present at the time of the catastrophic…