Hurricane

... as to how strong Tomas will get in the latter part of the forecast period." Less than 48 hours ago, it was predicted that Tomas would by now be a Category One hurricane, and in a couple of more days, a Category Three hurricane, as it turned towards Haiti. There has been wind shear. Now, Tomas is a poorly organized tropical storm that is expected to weaken further, still turning towards Haiti. It is still predicted that Tomas will reach hurricane strength by Thursday as it begins to bear down on Haiti. It is also predicted that Tomas will remain more or less intact as a cyclone after…
Tomas is nicely demonstrating the degree to which meteorological models depend on the context of experience. This season I've read most of the discussions and advisories for most of the Atlantic storms, and generally speaking, the forecasts change only a little from time to time once a storm is named, and the final realized path and strength changes match very closely with with was predicted. Occasionally a storm is more poorly behaved than that. But Tomas, which formed in a place no other storms formed this year and that has existed under rather unusual conditions is giving the Hurricane…
According to the current models, Tomas the Hurricane will stay around the Category One/Category Two boundary over the next four days as it moves to the west then north. The predictions are very uncertain at this point, but Wednesday night or Thursday morning, Tomas may be near western Haiti and prepared to bear down on the Port au Prince area as a Category Two (or strong?) hurricane. It may also slip between Haiti and Jamaica, affecting both with strong tropical storm force winds and proceed on to eastern Cuba. Tomas continues to confuse the forecasters a bit more than the average…
... and almost as interesting as his enigmatic sister, Shary. Tomas formed farther south than Hurricanes often do, hung around for a long time as a tropical depression, then blew up to hurricane strength very quickly. Having been declared a hurricane just a few moments ago, it may reach Category Three status as early as Monday, certainly by Tuesday. It will track in it's current direction, staying south of DR/Haiti and heading pretty much directly towards Jamaica, though it will likely turn north towards Cuba before hitting Rastaland. I can't see how Tomas is NOT going to be a serious…
Try to pick out the hurricane in this picture: Possible but difficult. Click here to see an animation (if it is still on line), then it is easy to see this most unusual hurricane. Shary is cnfusin the weather experts ath the HPC. words like "conundrum" and "system not handling this well" and "normally ... would not require this much discussion" and "a change ... does complicate matters" and "it is hard to discount" and a note that this hurricane would never have been detected were it not for the most modern of techniques. Shary will be absorbed by a cold front by the end of the day…
I was wrong. I was expecting Right Eye to turn into Shary, and it did but I was expecting Left Eye to turn into Tomas, but it dissipated. Mouth turned into Tomas. In any event, we have two new named storms in the Atlantic. One more and we'll run out of names! Shary, a tropical storm, is the little roundish thing near the top of the satellite image. Bottom line: This storm might barely reach hurricane strength and it might not, and by the time the Vikings-Patriots game is over, it will have been absorbed into a front which I believe may be a wave that came off of the…
It turns out that the "land hurricane" (technically, a super storm, aka extra tropical cyclone or bomb cyclone) may have been the biggest (most energetic) storm hisorically recorded for the region. Of particular interest is the pressure record (the ultimate measure for a storm) but also, the number of tornadoes and the damage due to winds was also impressive. And, there are interesting tropical things going on in the Atlantic Ocean. Is this all caused by Global Warming? Yes, probably. Gone are the days when the knee-jerk reaction must be "well, no, no one storm can be attributed to bla…
I think we are having a land hurricane here in Minnesota. The tree in front of my daughter's other house (her mom's place) that was topped by a tornado the week after we bought it has lost a big dead branch, a bunch of firs at the junction of 10 and 35W are down, a colleague of my wife lost a fence, traffic lights have been knocked out on University in Blaine, Monica lost power in the cities last night, all sorts of things like that happening as we experience a steady drum of 35 mph winds with gusts reaching 80 now and then, but more commonly, about 55 mph. The precip is horizontal, but it…
Former hurricane Richard will dissipate in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the moment, the satellite view of the storm is interesting, because it looks like a well organized and properly shaped skeleton of a hurricane: Meanwhile, a stormy low pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic is developing beyond yesterday's suggestive storminess, and many of the conditions are good for the formation of a strong storm, but these conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next two days, thus the chance of this disturbance becoming a named storm in the near future are about one in three.
Hurricane Richard is now Tropical Storm Richard, and is weakening rapidly. When this storm passes over the Gulf of Mexico, it is not expected to gain strength, but rather, will be torn asunder by the forces of nature and stuff and will dissipate. Richard knocked out power and messed up a bunch of roofs, but the news from Belize seems to indicate that the storm was not a disaster. Will there be a Shary (that's the next name on the list of hurricane names for this season in the Atlantic). Maybe. There's a stormy area in the middle of the Atlantic that may develop, but not for a least a few…
There is a disturbance in the force. Well, actually, in the Caribbean. It is not named yet, but by the weekend it is likely that Richard will be the next named Atlantic storm. Richard is now a named tropical storm (named "Richard," interestingly enough) in the Caribbean, with a likely path across the Yucatan. ... Richard will probably be a hurricane by Saturday, move over land, weaken to a tropical storm, then emerge in the gulf to start it's new life, in about four days. This could actually be a fairly serious storm for those in the Yucatan. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of…
Paula has just been named a Hurricane. This is a storm that formed in the northwestern Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan. Although the storm has the potential to become quite strong from very warm surface waters, shearing winds are likely to keep Paula from becoming well organized. Forcasts as to where this storm may go are all over the place It might round the Yucatan and head west into the Gulf of Mexico; possible but unlikely. It may head west after going north for a while, and go to the Atlantic, passing between southern Florida and Cuba. It may travel over western Cuba and curve…
It has been relatively quiet in the Atlantic for several days (for a hurricane season ... there's been plenty of storm and rain in the usual areas). Otto is the current, newly named storm, and, in the words of the folks at the Hurricane Prediction Center, Otto is "struggling." It is possible that Otto will reach hurricane strength over the next few days, but it will do so as it shoots northeast roughly towards France. That is all.
The next named storm in the Atlantic will be Nicole, and it is possible that it will form in the Caribbean. This mess of clouds and storms with a strong but now well organized low pressure system is unlikely to become a named storm over the next couple of days, but keep an eye on it. Oddly, it is likely to move north or northeast, which will keep it over water (rather than running across southern Mexico/Honduras/Belize) but also pushing it towards cooler water and more wind shear. So maybe that blob is Nicole, maybe not. A well organized suspicious looking blog too far north yet…
The stormy feature in the West Indies has formed into a named storm, and it is Matthew. Matthew is expected to remain as a tropical storm as it follows the North Honduras coast and dissipates over the central Yucatan. Well, it is possible that it will jump the isthmus and do something interesting in the Pacific, or reform in the gulf, but it is too early to say. Meanwhile, Lisa continues to be one of the least interesting storms ever, and is expected to dissipate before Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, the ITCZ is very active with lots of storms and low pressure, but not the best conditions in…
Igor is on the cusp of being a hurricane and not being a hurricane. The storm has hurricane force winds but its energy is being rapidly redistributed from a cyclonic pattern (a hurricane is a cyclone) to a frontal pattern (a hurricane is not a front). Either way, somebody's gonna lose themselves' a trailer. In Newfoundland. Maybe. Lisa, still in the eastern Atlantic, is now a tropical storm, as predicted. But, the next several days have a great deal of uncertainty regarding Lisa's direction of movement and intensity. I'm thinking Lisa will not be a any time over the next four days, but…
There is a reasonably high probability that tropical storm force winds from what is now Hurricane Igor will affect the Maritime provinces in Canada. Look for that to start happening Tuesday and later. Igor could actually be weaker than a hurricane is supposed to be (or close to it) over the next few hours, technically, but is still organized like a hurricane and is expected to restrengthen one more time before being absorbed into the extrapolar system. Meanwhile, say hi to Lisa. Lisa does not exist yet, but at present a zone of low pressure and storminess 400 miles west of Cape Verde…
I hereby withdraw my earlier prediction that a blob over Mali and Niger would be the next named Atlantic storm. Instead, I think it will be this one right here: We shall name it Karl. If it forms into a tropical storm soon. Expect that by Thursday.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are eddies in the massive current of solar energy transiting from the equator, where there is lots of it, to the poles, where there is less. And when I say equator, I mean the ITCZ. Anyway, there are three such concentration of energy in the Atlantic worthy of a close look. Igor is a hurricane of Category Four strength that will probably turn north and avoid land, but maybe not. Julia is a tropical storm that is expected to come close to hurricane strength in about two days, but will most likely not become a full scale hurricane. Julia is likely to turn…
We always knew Igor had what it took to be a hurricane, despite early, and rather embarrassing, fluctuations in intensity. Now, Igor is a Category Four hurricane with prospects for additional strengthening. There are no current warnings or watches, and the Hurricane Prediction center is not saying a lot about what is supposed to happen after the end of the week when Igor has drifted to the middle of the ocean, weakened slightly, and is pointing more or less a North Carolina but so far away as to not be anything like a threat. Yet. Most hurricanes with this path make a strong right turn at…