gregladen | October 29, 2016How can you tell what a megalomaniac is really up to? You find out what the megalomaniac is accusing everyone else of. That's what they are up to.
While the just barely brighter than dim press and pundits are focusing on Trump's call for his followers to carry out voter suppression in African American and Hispanic neighborhoods on November 8th, or before at early voting elections, and accusing the Democrats of voter fraud (suppression and fraud are different, sort of opposite, things) something different is actually happening.
This is how dog whistles work. Dog whistles, usually used by…
gregladen | October 28, 2016Scratch Programming Playground: Learn to Program by Making Cool Games is a brand new offering from No Starch Press.
Never mind all the other programming books for kids, this is the best so far.
It helps that the Scratch Programming environment is so easy to use and allows such creative development, and it also helps that Scratch is likely to be a programming environment for basic robotics in the future (as I discuss briefly here). But the book itself is excellent, and works at several levels. A young kid working with an adult, a medium level kid working on their own, or an adult playing…
gregladen | October 27, 2016I've got a new set of electoral college predictions. I'm using the same method as before, but with these differences: a) I had to use less than ideal polls (c rating, a few that overlapped with days prior to POTUS debate III) on the last run, this time no such polls are used; and b) there are some new polls added in this time.
The difference is interesting, and somewhat concerning (compare to this result). For example, in this run, Arizona, Virginia, and New Hampshire go for Trump. Most people think of that as unlikely. Personally, I don't see Virginia doing that. New Hampshire is…
gregladen | October 26, 2016It is fun to look at polls, and using such data, decide which candidate will win which state, and ultimately, which candidate will win the electoral college. A lot of people and organizations do that, and for this reason, I don't. I do not have access to polls that no one else sees. Were I to use polling data to directly predict outcomes per state, I'd use a method like that used by FiveThirtyEight, and probably come up with similar results. How boring. It would be a waste of my time to try to replicate the excellent work done by Nate Silver and his team.
Back during the Democratic Primaries…
gregladen | October 25, 2016I had a good printer experience, and I thought I should pass it on to you.
Printers are, of course, the spawn of Satan. Especially the ink jet kind.
For a long time, I had a cheap black and white laser, which worked OK for non color stuff, and an inkjet all in one, which was handy but cost a lot to keep in ink.
When Huxley, at about age 5, figure out how to use the all in one as a photo copy machine or to print photos off an SD card (both functions I had not explored, but he figured out on his own), he incorporated the all-in-one into his artistic work flow, which involved making computer…
gregladen | October 25, 2016Lenovo makes two Phablets that are similar, the 4G and the 4G plus. The latter is not bigger (in fact, it is a little smaller) but rather, has higher specs all around, making it a fairly expensive device. But the Lenovo PHAB 4G Phablet (regular) is practically free and is actually rather Phabulous.
OK, well, not fee, but about 170 bucks or so, except now closer to $130 from Gearbest. (As far as I know this is the only place to get it. Gearbest has a very large selection of Lenovo phones and phablets, as well as a high diversity of generally very affordable tablets.)
So, I tried out the…
gregladen | October 25, 2016This is a fascinating story involving Crazy Eddie, Donald Trump, and this year's election.
Here's what I want to know. Do Democrats across the country have a plan in place to collect usable data (usable in court) to document violation of the consent degree by the Republicans, should they do so?
Also, I'd like to compliment the actors for the excellent choreography, especially the reindeer.
gregladen | October 24, 2016At the moment, this is a nail biter. There is a theory that a strong showing by one party at the top of the ticket brings along those lower down. However, that theory does not apply this year for several reasons. I think it works better for Republicans than for Democrats, for many the top of the Democratic ticket is less inspiring than ideal for this to work (though for no good reason), and this is the oddest election year ever, so in expecting the expected, expect the exceptional.
The Democrats hold 46 seats, and the Republicans 54 (slightly simplified numbers). This is a year in which…
gregladen | October 24, 2016Many years ago, Mel Konner, Marjorie shostak, and Boyd Eaton wrote "The Paleolithic Prescription: A program of diet and exercise and a design for living." (It is hard to find these days. To find it and related titles on Amazon, look for this book first, and track the PP down via the author name Konner.)
(Added: You can probably get the The Paleolithic Prescription here.)
Richard G. Bribiescas is professor of anthropology and ecology and evolutionary biology at Yale University, where he also serves as deputy provost for faculty development and diversity. He is the author of Men:…
gregladen | October 23, 2016My friend Paul Douglas calls himself an albino unicorn. He is a Republican (one of my few Republican friends!) and an evangelical Christian (one of my few evangelical Christian friends!) who is extremely well informed about climate change, and who acts on a day to day basis as a climate warrior, informing people of the realities of climate change at several levels.
I tend to think of Paul as a tire, because he is where the rubber meets the road. His job is informing corporations and such about the risks they are facing right now, today, tomorrow, next week with respect to weather. Paul…
gregladen | October 22, 2016I've been thinking about Trump's attempt to blackmail the voters. He intimates that he might not accept the election results unless he wins. The word goes around that his followers will go to the streets and carry out acts of violence if Trump does not win. It is a bully tactic by a bully's bully.
But I have been having thought about this, about how it is actually likely to go down. I mentioned this already. Some of his supporters will go and take over a wildlife reserve somewhere, for a few weeks. A few others will carry out acts of violence here and there, but by count, not much. Mostly…
gregladen | October 21, 2016A presidential election season involves a series of debates. After the last debate, a day or a few days after, the main candidates attend and speak at a charity dinner run by the Archdiocese of New York, to raise money for Catholic Charities. It is the last event at which the candidates will appear together, and the format is that of a roast.
That is more or less the tradition.
Last night, Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were at the Al Smith dinner. Here is are the salient facts:
Trump spoke first. He had two or three pretty funny jokes, but the one that I think will go down in…
gregladen | October 20, 2016What really happened the night Osama Bin Laden was killed by Hillary Clinton and her SEAL Team?
Or, was it like this?
Check out this maximally LOL item at Slate for all the details.
gregladen | October 20, 2016Updated to include polls through Oct 26th (AM, more polls later in the day on the 26th will be added at the next update):
Updated, 25 October AM
As I expected, and demonstrated much to the consternation of everyone, the ever widening double digit lead of Clinton over Trump in an increasing number of polls meme is a falsehood. Here is the latest graphic using the same approach as described below, but updated to reflect additional polls.
Rather than a widening, or even consistent, gap, or a gap that is double digit, we see Clinton continuing to lead, but pretty much in the same way that she…
gregladen | October 19, 2016It is unfortunate that "all the pundits" are now saying that Clinton will now win no matter what, and that Trump will likely suffer more scandal before the end of the process.
This is unfortunate because a weak get out the vote effort is probably worth a couple of points on election day. It is unfortunate because some Trump scandals increase, rather than decrease, his numbers. He could suddenly gain a couple of points if he says or does just the wright/wrong things. It is unfortunate because, for whatever reason, Hillary "My Middle Name is Target" Clinton has turned into the Teflon…
gregladen | October 19, 2016A new study illuminates this shadowy question. First, the video:
And now, a press note from the American Chemical Society:
Water striders' ability to walk and jump on the surfaces of ponds and lakes has long amazed curious observers — and inspired robot designers who want to mimic the bugs' talent. Now, scientists have measured for the first time key parameters that allow them to walk on water — by studying their leg shadows. The findings, reported in the ACS journal Langmuir, could contribute to designs for water-skimming robots.
More than 2,000 years ago, Greek scientist Archimedes…
gregladen | October 18, 2016Steve Schmidt, bless his pointy Republican head, makes a very important point here.
And to underscore the point, let me ask you this: How do we go from having an "election" to having a "president elect"?
The process is actually a bit subtle and somewhat more complicated than one might think. Election day happens, but there is no "president elect" in any official, constitutional, way, for a very long time thereafter.
Though this can vary, the first possible date that we will have a "president elect" in the current election cycle is on January 6th, 2017. Not before.
Of course, what really…
gregladen | October 18, 2016I have another tablet review for you. (See the bottom of the post for some followup on my last review.) This is a "tablet PC" meaning a tablet that runs a full on PC operating system, as opposed to a tablet-oriented operating system.
With the keyboard (not supplied, buy separately).
The Jumper EZpad 5SE Tablet PC is a pretty high performance tablet with an exceptionally low cost, and worth a look especially if you are a Windows user. The tablet comes with Windows 10, and a most notably, a magic "magnetic stylus."
The screen and stylus use electromagnetic technology. So, you can…
gregladen | October 18, 2016My current model (subject to change) puts Arizona in the Clinton Column. This is the prediction that has resulted in the most head scratching from those observing this, but it turns out that the Clinton Campaign seems to agree. Clinton surrogates, including Chelsea, Michele Obama, and Bernie Sanders will be in the state over the next few days.
Frankly, I worry about good people going to Arizona stumping for a Liberal Democrat. Perhaps that is because of my own experience living there for several weeks. During that time a local desperado was arrested and made a court appearance, and his…
gregladen | October 16, 2016There are some interesting, and in some cases, potentially disturbing, things going on with the state by state numbers in the current election. Most of this has to do with third party candidates, and most of it with Gary Johnson.
First, I'll note, that despite fears among liberals and progressives that a lot of Bernie Bots would flock to third party candidates and eschew Clinton, there is no strong evidence that Clinton is losing much to any third party candidates. However, in some states, especially those with libertarian tendencies, Gary Johnson is doing fairly well. And, this had been…